{
  "generated_at": "2026-09-04T02:40:30Z",
  "period": {
    "start": "2024-07-29",
    "end": "2026-09-03"
  },
  "hypothesis": "Persistent, broad and historically strong US spot BTC/ETH ETF inflows can confirm real demand, but cannot substitute for a macro regime signal.",
  "frozen_rule": {
    "version": "V3.2-F-shadow",
    "window_sessions": 5,
    "availability_lag": "Observation D is usable from calendar day D+1.",
    "direction": "Combined BTC+ETH five-session net flow > 0.",
    "persistence": "At least 4 of five combined daily flows > 0.",
    "breadth": "Both BTC and ETH five-session net flows > 0.",
    "intensity": "Combined five-session flow > trailing 60th percentile, using up to 252 prior windows and at least 60.",
    "tiers": {
      "0": "Insufficient history or non-positive combined flow.",
      "1": "Positive direction only.",
      "2": "Positive direction plus at least two of persistence, breadth, intensity.",
      "3": "All four confirmations are true."
    },
    "episode_merge_days": 30,
    "core_v3_weight": 0
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  "rule_hash": "3081906daf5935db999a192acd7a249020a7103e08026f0ac5ab49ff756355c1",
  "current": {
    "observation_date": "2026-09-03",
    "available_date": "2026-09-04",
    "window_start": "2026-08-28",
    "window_sessions": 5,
    "btc_5d_musd": 156.2,
    "eth_5d_musd": 218.09999999999997,
    "combined_5d_musd": 374.29999999999995,
    "positive_sessions": 3,
    "intensity_threshold_musd": 178.27999999999997,
    "intensity_percentile_rank": 0.6706349206349206,
    "history_windows": 252,
    "components": {
      "direction": true,
      "persistence": false,
      "breadth": true,
      "intensity": true
    },
    "level": 2,
    "label": "流入确认"
  },
  "history": {
    "shared_open_sessions": 532,
    "evaluated_windows": 528,
    "level_3_days": 132
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  "event_study": {
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        "observation_date": "2024-10-22",
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            "positive_rate": 0.4
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        }
      }
    },
    {
      "intensity_percentile": 60,
      "persistence_days": 4,
      "episode_count": 12,
      "summary": {
        "btc": {
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        },
        "eth": {
          "7": {
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          }
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "intensity_percentile": 60,
      "persistence_days": 5,
      "episode_count": 11,
      "summary": {
        "btc": {
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          },
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            "average": 0.006361979129843758,
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            "positive_rate": 0.3333333333333333
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        },
        "eth": {
          "7": {
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            "average": -0.0018672017243654263,
            "median": -0.00474268697823621,
            "positive_rate": 0.45454545454545453
          },
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          "90": {
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      }
    },
    {
      "intensity_percentile": 70,
      "persistence_days": 3,
      "episode_count": 11,
      "summary": {
        "btc": {
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            "positive_rate": 0.5454545454545454
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          },
          "90": {
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        },
        "eth": {
          "7": {
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            "average": -0.010718149476005094,
            "median": -0.00474268697823621,
            "positive_rate": 0.45454545454545453
          },
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      }
    },
    {
      "intensity_percentile": 70,
      "persistence_days": 4,
      "episode_count": 12,
      "summary": {
        "btc": {
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            "positive_rate": 0.5
          },
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            "positive_rate": 0.45454545454545453
          },
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            "average": 0.0058849087013668425,
            "median": -0.10815468125186123,
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          }
        },
        "eth": {
          "7": {
            "count": 12,
            "average": -0.025285159219766273,
            "median": -0.02387447764045264,
            "positive_rate": 0.25
          },
          "30": {
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            "average": 0.02631483104028579,
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            "positive_rate": 0.45454545454545453
          },
          "90": {
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          }
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "intensity_percentile": 70,
      "persistence_days": 5,
      "episode_count": 10,
      "summary": {
        "btc": {
          "7": {
            "count": 10,
            "average": 0.0027886502932637615,
            "median": 0.005088591424108446,
            "positive_rate": 0.6
          },
          "30": {
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            "median": 0.01955055654863802,
            "positive_rate": 0.6666666666666666
          },
          "90": {
            "count": 8,
            "average": 0.020618337699672723,
            "median": -0.08298505520375876,
            "positive_rate": 0.375
          }
        },
        "eth": {
          "7": {
            "count": 10,
            "average": -0.0034021854306436005,
            "median": -0.010164040664754403,
            "positive_rate": 0.4
          },
          "30": {
            "count": 9,
            "average": 0.10115042527806245,
            "median": -0.012171757995320998,
            "positive_rate": 0.4444444444444444
          },
          "90": {
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            "average": 0.06912175161401257,
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            "positive_rate": 0.375
          }
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "validation": {
    "eligible_for_core_weight": false,
    "verdict": "prospective_shadow_zero_core_weight",
    "criteria": {
      "point_in_time_availability_lag": true,
      "neighbor_parameter_grid_completed": true,
      "five_year_history": false,
      "minimum_30_independent_episodes": false
    },
    "reason": "US spot ETF history is too short to cover multiple crypto cycles. Historical results are exploratory; promotion requires 6-12 months of frozen forward records."
  },
  "forward_ledger_entries": 7,
  "data_quality": {
    "flow_revision_risk": "Farside is a third-party aggregate and historical values can revise.",
    "closed_market_rows": "Rows where all fund cells are missing are excluded from five-session windows.",
    "lookahead_control": "Each flow observation becomes available on the next calendar day.",
    "short_history": "The common BTC/ETH ETF sample begins only after spot ETH products started trading in 2024.",
    "active_transport": "farside",
    "fallback_policy": "Farside remains authoritative for existing history. Newer ByKaranteli/SoSoValue rows are append-only and are accepted only after overlap validation.",
    "fallback_overlap_audit": {
      "btc": {
        "active_transport": "farside",
        "primary_cutoff": "2026-09-03",
        "fallback_cutoff": "2026-09-01",
        "overlap_rows": 60,
        "median_absolute_difference_musd": 0.04835850000000619,
        "maximum_absolute_difference_musd": 8.91180399999999,
        "appended_rows": 0
      },
      "eth": {
        "active_transport": "farside",
        "primary_cutoff": "2026-09-03",
        "fallback_cutoff": "2026-09-01",
        "overlap_rows": 60,
        "median_absolute_difference_musd": 0.049922500000008085,
        "maximum_absolute_difference_musd": 14.245807,
        "appended_rows": 0
      }
    }
  },
  "sources": {
    "btc_etf_flows": "https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/",
    "eth_etf_flows": "https://farside.co.uk/ethereum-etf-flow-all-data/",
    "fallback_etf_flows": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/bykarantelicom/crypto-datasets/main/data/etf-flows.csv",
    "btc_eth_prices": "https://coinmetrics.io/community-network-data/",
    "btc_etf_approval": "https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-statements/gensler-statement-spot-bitcoin-011023"
  }
}