{
  "generated_at": "2026-08-22T12:38:31Z",
  "period": {
    "start": "2015-03-18",
    "end": "2026-08-14"
  },
  "hypothesis": "A broad US macro dovish/liquidity score predicts stronger BTC and ETH forward returns over 90 to 365 days.",
  "rules": {
    "score": "Eight binary macro factors worth 12.5 points each, grouped into four 25-point pillars.",
    "primary_trigger": "Score >=62.5, at least three pillars positive, on at least five of the latest ten business days.",
    "exit": "Score below 50 or fewer than two positive pillars for ten business days.",
    "episode_merge": "Re-entries no more than 120 calendar days after an episode start are one macro episode.",
    "entry": "Next available crypto daily close; stress-tested at 1, 3, and 7 day delays."
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    "score": 25.0,
    "positive_pillars": 2,
    "pillars": {
      "growth": 12.5,
      "policy": 0.0,
      "rates": 0.0,
      "liquidity": 12.5
    },
    "factors": {
      "pce": true,
      "labor": false,
      "ust_2y": false,
      "dot_plot": false,
      "usd": false,
      "real_10y": false,
      "net_liquidity": false,
      "m2": true
    }
  },
  "data_cutoffs": {
    "core_pce": "2026-06-01",
    "unemployment": "2026-07-01",
    "usd_broad": "2026-08-14",
    "ust_2y": "2026-08-20",
    "real_10y": "2026-08-20",
    "fed_assets": "2026-08-19",
    "tga": "2026-08-19",
    "rrp": "2026-08-21",
    "m2": "2026-06-01",
    "btc_price": "2026-08-21",
    "eth_price": "2026-08-21",
    "sep": "2026-06-17"
  },
  "data_quality": {
    "live_site": "The published page attempts a fresh server-side read and falls back to this dated snapshot on failure.",
    "vintage": "Current revised macro history with conservative release lags; not point-in-time ALFRED vintages.",
    "rrp_definition": "New York Fed overnight reverse repo accepted amount, converted from dollars to USD millions.",
    "usd_definition": "Federal Reserve nominal broad trade-weighted dollar index; not ICE DXY."
  },
  "sources": {
    "pce": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE",
    "unemployment": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
    "ust_2y": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
    "real_10y": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10",
    "usd": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS",
    "m2": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL",
    "fed_assets": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL",
    "tga": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WDTGAL",
    "rrp": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo",
    "sep": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/guide-to-the-summary-of-economic-projections.htm",
    "crypto": "https://coinmetrics.io/community-network-data/"
  }
}